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Property Crime Trends in Iberia, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Iberia, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both property crime rates and population. The total number of property crimes varied from a low of 1 in 2013 to a high of 20 in 2015, with the most recent figure standing at 8 in 2022. This represents a 166.67% increase in property crimes from 2010 to 2022. During the same period, the population decreased from 1,346 in 2010 to 992 in 2022, a 26.30% reduction.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which decreased to 0 in 2013, then peaked at 5 in 2016, before settling at 2 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.49 in 2010 to 2.02 in 2022, despite fluctuations in between. The city's contribution to state burglaries doubled from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This increase in the burglary rate, despite population decline, suggests a concerning trend in property security within the city.
Larceny-theft trends show a more erratic pattern. From 0 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 15 in 2015, then decreased to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2010 to 6.05 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This trend indicates a growing issue with theft in the community, particularly when considered against the backdrop of population decline.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2015, then dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.74 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests an improvement in vehicle security or a shift in criminal focus within the city.
Arson incidents have consistently remained at 0 throughout the observed period, from 2010 to 2022. This stability in arson rates, despite other property crime fluctuations, indicates effective fire prevention measures or a lack of arson-related criminal activity in the city.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $28,624 in 2013 to $54,078 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased from their peak in 2015. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 60% in 2013 to 77% in 2022, which coincides with the overall downward trend in property crimes after 2015, indicating a potential link between homeownership and reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on the cyclical nature of the observed data and the recent uptick in 2022, we project that property crimes may reach around 10-12 incidents per year by 2029. This forecast assumes continued economic growth and stable homeownership rates.
In summary, Iberia has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crimes have increased since 2010, recent years show a stabilizing trend. The most significant discoveries include the inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates, and the potential positive impact of increased homeownership on crime reduction. These findings underscore the importance of economic development and housing stability in managing property crime rates in small urban communities.
