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Violent Crime Trends in Ellsinore, Missouri: A Small City with Fluctuating Population and Sporadic Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ellsinore, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2011 to 2022, the city experienced minimal violent crime activity, with only a brief period of reported incidents. During this same timeframe, the population fluctuated, starting at 1,994 in 2011, peaking at 2,848 in 2019, and settling at 1,904 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 4.5% despite the recent decline.
The murder rate in this small city has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2011 to 2022. This statistic indicates a complete absence of reported murders, maintaining at 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% of the state's total murders. The stability of this metric, despite population changes, suggests a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city were similarly rare, with only one reported case in 2012. This singular event translated to a rate of approximately 0.45 per 1,000 residents for that year, representing 0.08% of the state's total rape cases. In all other years, including 2011, 2013, 2020, and 2022, no rapes were reported, returning to a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% of state totals.
Robbery statistics mirror those of murder, with zero incidents reported across all recorded years. This consistency maintains a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% of state totals from 2011 through 2022, regardless of population fluctuations.
Aggravated assault showed the most variation among violent crimes in Ellsinore. In 2012, there were 3 reported cases, equating to about 1.34 per 1,000 residents and 0.02% of the state's total. This trend continued in 2013 with another 3 cases, though the per capita rate slightly decreased to about 1.30 per 1,000 due to population growth. However, by 2020 and 2022, aggravated assaults had dropped to zero, aligning with the other violent crime categories.
The limited data available makes it challenging to establish strong correlations between violent crime trends and other demographic factors. However, it's noteworthy that the brief spike in violent crime (primarily aggravated assaults) in 2012-2013 coincided with a period of population growth. The subsequent years of zero reported violent crimes occurred alongside both population increases and decreases, suggesting that population changes alone do not strongly predict crime rates in this small community.
Projecting these trends forward, it's reasonable to anticipate that Ellsinore will likely maintain its low violent crime rates through 2029. The consistent zero or near-zero rates across all categories in recent years suggest a stable, low-crime environment. However, given the city's small size, even a single incident could significantly impact rates, making long-term predictions challenging.
In summary, Ellsinore demonstrates a remarkably low violent crime profile. The isolated incidents of rape and aggravated assault in 2012-2013 stand out against an otherwise crime-free backdrop. This pattern of minimal violent crime, particularly in recent years, paints a picture of a safe community. However, the city's small population means that crime rates can be volatile, and ongoing vigilance will be crucial to maintaining this positive trend.
