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Property Crime Trends in Houston, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Houston, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 74 in 2010, peaking at 170 in 2011, and settling at 119 in 2022, representing a 60.8% increase over this period. Concurrently, the population experienced modest growth, rising from 4,400 in 2010 to 4,206 in 2022, a 4.4% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were 13 burglaries, which increased to 28 in 2020, before decreasing to 9 in 2022. This represents a 30.8% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.95 in 2010 to 6.59 in 2020, then fell to 2.14 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.04% in 2010, peaking at 0.18% in 2020, and settling at 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary rates have been volatile, they have generally remained a small fraction of state totals.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, increased from 58 incidents in 2010 to 105 in 2022, an 81% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 13.18 in 2010 to 24.96 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, indicating a growing share of state totals. This trend suggests that larceny-theft has become a more prevalent issue in the city relative to the state over time.
Motor vehicle theft showed a moderate increase, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 66.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.68 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04% over the years, suggesting that this crime type has not significantly changed in its proportion to state totals.
Arson incidents were rare and sporadic in the city. There were no reported arsons in most years, with single incidents reported in 2011, 2017, and 2021. Given the infrequency, it's difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates for arson in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between property crime rates and median income. For instance, as median income rose from $33,552 in 2019 to $39,919 in 2021, property crimes decreased from 119 to 105. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period, suggesting other factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a slight upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on historical patterns, larceny-theft is likely to continue as the predominant property crime, potentially reaching around 115-120 incidents annually by 2029. Burglary rates may stabilize around 10-15 incidents per year, while motor vehicle theft could see a minor increase to 6-7 incidents annually.
In summary, Houston has experienced a general increase in property crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by larceny-theft. While burglary rates have fluctuated significantly, they show a recent downward trend. Motor vehicle theft has seen a moderate increase, and arson remains an infrequent occurrence. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic indicators, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing larceny-theft, which has become an increasingly significant portion of the city's and state's property crime landscape.
