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Property Crime Trends in Pierce City, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pierce City, Missouri, a small city with a population of 2,047 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes increased by 18.18%, from 33 to 39 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 12.65%, from 2,055 to 1,795.5 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 12 in 2012, representing a 200% increase. However, by 2020, the number had decreased to 8 burglaries. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.95 in 2010 to 4.46 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2020, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state-wide trends. This suggests that while the overall number of burglaries has fluctuated, the city has become more vulnerable to this type of crime relative to its population and the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 27 larceny-theft cases, which dropped to 25 in 2020, representing a 7.41% decrease. However, when adjusted for population changes, the rate per 1,000 people actually increased from 13.14 in 2010 to 13.92 in 2020. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.02% to 0.03% during this period, indicating a relatively stable trend in relation to state-wide statistics. This suggests that while raw numbers have decreased slightly, the risk of larceny-theft for residents has marginally increased.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which tripled to 6 by 2020, representing a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.97 in 2010 to 3.34 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose from 0.02% to 0.03%. This significant increase in both absolute numbers and relative to population suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the community.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported case in 2018, representing 0.15% of state arsons that year. Due to the scarcity of data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. For instance, as median income increased from $36,172 in 2013 to $40,240 in 2016, property crime incidents decreased from 33 to 28. Conversely, when median income dropped to $33,161 in 2018, property crime incidents increased to 35 in 2017.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Pierce City may see a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, the forecast suggests that total property crimes could reach approximately 45-50 incidents annually. This projection takes into account the fluctuating population and the observed trends in specific crime categories.
In summary, Pierce City has experienced varied trends across different property crime categories over the past decade. While burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown concerning increases relative to population, larceny-theft has remained relatively stable. The relationship between property crime rates and economic factors such as median income suggests that socioeconomic conditions play a role in crime trends. As the city moves forward, addressing the rising rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the safety and security of Pierce City residents.
