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Property Crime Trends in Hornersville, Missouri: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Crime Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hornersville, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 12 incidents in 2013 and a low of 0 in 2015. The overall trend shows a slight decrease, with 5 property crimes reported in 2021 compared to 1 in 2010. This change occurred against a backdrop of significant population decline, with the city's population dropping from 897 in 2010 to 526 in 2021, a decrease of 41.4%.
Burglary trends in the city have been variable. In 2013, there were 7 burglaries, which decreased to 1 in 2021. This represents a reduction from 7.25 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2013 to 1.90 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's contribution to state burglary figures has remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03% of state totals. This suggests that while burglary rates have fluctuated, they have not significantly impacted state-level crime statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown inconsistency over the years. The highest number recorded was 6 in 2016, dropping to 3 in 2021. When adjusted for population, this translates to 8.24 thefts per 1,000 people in 2016, decreasing to 5.70 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures has been minimal, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total. This indicates that larceny-theft, while present, is not a major concern relative to state-wide occurrences.
Motor vehicle theft has been a rare occurrence in the city. The first reported incident was in 2017, with subsequent years showing either 0, 1, or 2 cases annually. In 2021, there was 1 motor vehicle theft, equating to 1.90 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures has consistently been around 0.01% when incidents occurred. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue for the city compared to other areas in the state.
Arson cases have been sporadic, with only two incidents reported in 2013. Since then, no arson cases have been recorded. The 2013 incidents represented 2.07 arsons per 1,000 people and accounted for 0.26% of state arson cases that year. The absence of arson cases in subsequent years indicates that this is not a recurring problem for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population and the overall decrease in property crimes. As the population density decreased from 1,149 per square mile in 2010 to 673 in 2021, the number of property crimes generally trended downward. Interestingly, the median income increased from $37,428 in 2013 to $42,205 in 2021, coinciding with a period of lower crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also rose from 56% in 2013 to 76% in 2021, which may have contributed to the stability and lower crime rates in recent years.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that property crime rates will likely remain low or potentially decrease further over the next five years (up to 2029). The continuing trend of population decline, if it persists, may result in even fewer incidents. However, this could be offset by potential increases in property values and median income, which might attract criminal activity.
In summary, Hornersville has experienced a general decline in property crimes concurrent with its population decrease. The most significant changes have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson have remained minimal concerns. The increase in homeownership and median income, coupled with the decreasing population density, appears to have contributed to a more stable community environment with lower crime rates. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its future security and development.
