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Property Crime Trends in Higginson, Arkansas: A Study of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Higginson in Arkansas presents an intriguing case study for property crime trends. From 2014 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 5 in 2014, peaking at 8 in 2015, and declining to 3 in 2021, representing a 40% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population experienced a notable shift, growing from 891 in 2014 to 1,160 in 2021, a 30.2% increase.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2014, there was 1 reported burglary, increasing to 3 in 2015, then decreasing to 0 by 2017 and remaining at that level through 2021. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2015 at 3.21 and fell to 0 by 2017. The city's contribution to state burglaries also fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.02% in 2015 before dropping to 0% in later years. This trend suggests an improvement in burglary prevention or reporting practices within the community.
Larceny-theft emerges as the most consistent property crime in Higginson. Cases ranged from 1 to 5 annually between 2014 and 2021. The highest incidence was 5 cases in 2015 and 2016, with the rate per 1,000 residents peaking at 5.52 in 2016. By 2021, this rate had decreased to 2.59 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, consistently at 0.01% except for a dip to 0% in 2017. This trend indicates that while larceny-theft remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the growing population has decreased.
Motor vehicle theft and arson show no reported cases from 2014 to 2021. Consequently, the city's contribution to state totals for these crimes remained at 0% throughout the period. This absence of motor vehicle thefts and arsons suggests effective prevention measures or potentially underreporting in these specific crime categories.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 701 per square mile in 2014 to 913 per square mile in 2021, there was a corresponding decrease in total property crimes from 5 to 3. This inverse relationship suggests that higher population density may not necessarily lead to increased property crime rates in this case.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. By 2029, the total number of property crimes is projected to stabilize around 2 to 3 annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the primary concern. Burglaries are expected to remain rare or non-existent, while motor vehicle theft and arson are predicted to continue their absence from reported crime statistics.
In summary, Higginson has experienced a general improvement in its property crime situation despite population growth. The most significant changes have been in burglary rates, which have effectively been eliminated in recent years. Larceny-theft, while still present, has shown a decreasing trend relative to population growth. The absence of motor vehicle thefts and arsons further contributes to the overall positive trend in property crime statistics for this Arkansas community.
