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Property Crime Trends in Hickman, Kentucky: A Small City's Evolving Security Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hickman, Kentucky, a small city with a population of 2,678 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over recent years. From 2019 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased from 2 to 1, representing a 50% reduction. During this same period, the population saw a slight increase from 2,617 to 2,741, indicating a 4.7% growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline. In 2019, there were 2 reported burglaries, which translated to approximately 0.76 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2021, this number dropped to zero, marking a 100% decrease. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics also diminished, falling from 0.02% in 2019 to 0% in 2021. This trend suggests an improvement in home and business security measures or potentially more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents present an interesting contrast. In 2019, there were no reported cases of larceny-theft. However, by 2021, one case was reported, equating to about 0.36 incidents per 1,000 residents. Despite this increase, the city's share of state-wide larceny-theft remained at 0%, indicating that this single incident did not significantly impact state-level statistics. This slight uptick could be attributed to various factors, including economic pressures or changes in local dynamics.
Motor vehicle theft rates remained stable at zero reported incidents in both 2019 and 2021. This consistency suggests effective deterrence measures or possibly a lack of opportunity for such crimes in this small community. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics remained at 0% throughout this period.
Arson cases saw a notable increase. In 2019, there were no reported arson incidents. However, in 2021, one case was reported, equating to approximately 0.36 incidents per 1,000 residents. More significantly, this single incident accounted for 0.34% of all arson cases in Kentucky that year. This sharp rise, while numerically small, represents a significant change for a city of this size and warrants attention from local authorities.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $38,337 in 2019 to $44,305 in 2021, a rise of about 15.6%. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 64% to 69%. These positive economic indicators coincide with the overall reduction in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. The single incidents of larceny-theft and arson in 2021 appear to be anomalies rather than the start of an upward trend, given the city's historical low crime rates. However, continued vigilance and community engagement will be crucial in maintaining these low crime levels.
In conclusion, Hickman has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime rates, with significant reductions in burglary and stable rates for most other categories. The isolated increases in larceny-theft and arson, while notable, do not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. The city's improving economic indicators, coupled with its small, close-knit community structure, provide a foundation for maintaining low crime rates. Continued focus on community policing, economic development, and social programs could help Hickman sustain and potentially improve its safety record in the coming years.
