Property Crime Trends in Hardinsburg, Kentucky: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
Hardinsburg, located in Kentucky, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 5 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022, representing a 200% increase. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline, from 5,681 in 2010 to 5,242 in 2022, a decrease of 7.7%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 15 in 2019, before dropping to 6 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase from 2010 to 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.35 in 2010 to 1.14 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also rose dramatically, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while the population decreased, burglary became a more prominent issue relative to the state's overall burglary incidents.
Larceny theft showed a more consistent upward trend. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2022, a 250% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.35 in 2010 to 1.34 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents grew from 0% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This indicates that larceny theft became a more significant concern for the community over time, outpacing the population decline.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more volatile. From 1 incident in 2010, it increased to 2 in 2022, a 100% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.05% over this period. While the absolute numbers remain low, the increase relative to population decline suggests growing concern in this area.
Arson incidents were rare and sporadic in the city. Only one case was reported in 2012, representing 0.22% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or correlations.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes coincided with a period of fluctuating median income. For instance, median income rose from $43,411 in 2013 to $60,162 in 2021, before dropping to $50,455 in 2022. This volatility in economic conditions may have contributed to the rise in property crimes. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 77% in 2013 to 76% in 2022 could be associated with the increase in property crimes, although the correlation is not strong.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see total property crimes reaching around 20-25 incidents annually by 2029. This projection assumes similar socioeconomic conditions and no significant interventions.
In summary, Hardinsburg has experienced a notable increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This trend is especially significant given the context of a declining population. The city's growing share of state-level property crimes indicates that it's facing increasing challenges in this area relative to other parts of Kentucky. Moving forward, local authorities may need to implement targeted strategies to address these rising property crime rates and their potential impact on community safety and economic stability.
