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Property Crime Trends in Herrin, Illinois: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Herrin, Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes in this city fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 467 in 2010 to 251 in 2019, representing a 46.3% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 14,052 in 2010 to 14,677 in 2020, an increase of 4.4%.
Burglary rates in Herrin showed a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 243 burglaries, which decreased to 57 by 2020, marking a 76.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 17.3 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.9 per 1,000 in 2020. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.45% in 2010, peaking at 0.52% in 2013, and then declining to 0.28% by 2020. This suggests that while burglaries decreased citywide, the reduction was more pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft trends in Herrin showed more volatility. The number of incidents increased from 205 in 2010 to a peak of 304 in 2017, before sharply declining to 154 in 2019. This represents a 25% decrease from 2010 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, rising from 14.6 in 2010 to 20.8 in 2017, then falling to 10.5 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2017, indicating that the city's larceny-theft rates were growing faster than the state average during this period.
Motor vehicle theft in Herrin showed an overall increasing trend. From 19 incidents in 2010, it rose to 39 in 2017, before settling at 20 in 2020. This represents a 5.3% increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.4 in 2010 to 2.7 in 2017, then decreased to 1.4 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew significantly, from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2017, indicating that this type of crime was growing faster in the city compared to the state average.
Arson cases in Herrin remained relatively low throughout the period, fluctuating between 0 and 4 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.3. The city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 0.38% in 2010, suggesting that arson was not a consistent problem in the city compared to other types of property crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Herrin. As median income increased from $47,713 in 2013 to $53,430 in 2020, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the slight decrease in the percentage of white residents (from 96% in 2013 to 90% in 2020) and the fluctuations in property crime rates, though this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is projected that by 2029, burglary rates in Herrin may continue to decline, potentially reaching around 30-40 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, possibly to around 140-160 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may show a slight increase, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents per year. Arson rates are expected to remain low, likely not exceeding 2-3 cases per year.
In summary, Herrin has experienced a general decline in property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglaries, while facing challenges with fluctuating larceny-theft rates and a slight increase in motor vehicle thefts. The city's changing demographics and improving economic conditions appear to have some influence on these trends, suggesting a complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates.
