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Property Crime Trends in Grayville, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations and Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Grayville, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 24 in 2010 to 50 in 2016, followed by a decrease to 22 in 2022, representing an overall decrease of 8.33% over this period. Concurrently, the population experienced modest growth, rising from 2,546 in 2010 to 2,449 in 2022, a slight decrease of 3.81%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which increased to 16 in 2016, before declining to 9 in 2022. When adjusted for population, this translates to a rate of 1.57 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010, peaking at 5.93 per 1,000 in 2016, and settling at 3.67 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also fluctuated, rising from 0.01% in 2010 to a high of 0.18% in 2021, before decreasing to 0.05% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglary rates have increased overall, they remain a small fraction of state totals.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown less dramatic changes. From 18 cases in 2010, the number increased to 31 in 2016, before decreasing to 12 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents was 7.07 in 2010, reached a high of 11.49 in 2016, and declined to 4.90 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.06% over the years. This indicates that larceny-theft, while fluctuating, has not significantly changed its proportion of state crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low but variable. From 2 cases in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2013 and 2014, then rose to 5 cases in 2019, before settling at 1 case in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.79 in 2010, peaked at 2.00 in 2019, and decreased to 0.41 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has generally been low, ranging from 0% to 0.04%, indicating that this crime type has minimal impact on state totals.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There was 1 case in 2010, increasing to 3 in 2013, then dropping to zero for several years before a single case was reported in 2019. No arson cases were reported in 2021 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.28 in 2013 but has since remained at or near zero. The city's contribution to state arson cases has been variable, reaching as high as 0.25% in 2013 but generally remaining at or below 0.1%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $37,551 in 2013 to $58,246 in 2022, property crime rates also showed an overall upward trend, despite year-to-year fluctuations. This counterintuitive correlation may suggest that as the city's economic conditions improved, it potentially became a more attractive target for property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Grayville may see a slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 3-4 cases per year, larceny-theft may continue its downward trend to approximately 10-15 cases annually, while motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain at very low levels, with 0-2 cases per year for each category.
In conclusion, Grayville has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with an overall trend towards stabilization or slight decrease in recent years. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains minimal across all property crime categories. The relationship between rising median incomes and property crime rates presents an intriguing area for further study in the context of small-city dynamics and economic development.
