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Property Crime Trends in Hendersonville: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hendersonville, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 26.7%, from 810 to 594 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 12.9%, from 19,686 to 22,224 residents, indicating a disproportionate decrease in property crime relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 114 burglaries, which increased to 193 in 2012, representing a 69.3% rise. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 125, a 35.2% reduction from the 2012 peak. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.79 in 2010 to 5.62 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglary rates declined, they did so at a slower pace compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, there were 639 larceny thefts, which decreased to 431 by 2022, a 32.6% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents also declined from 32.46 in 2010 to 19.39 in 2022. Despite this local decrease, the city's proportion of state larceny thefts decreased only slightly from 0.49% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 57 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 38 in 2022, a 33.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.90 in 2010 to 1.71 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.54% to 0.26% over this period, suggesting that the reduction in motor vehicle thefts was more pronounced compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have shown a concerning increase. From 3 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 5 in 2022, a 66.7% increase. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's proportion of state arson cases increased dramatically from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.57% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $41,644 in 2013 to $45,972 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the white population percentage and property crime rates. As the white population percentage increased slightly from 77% in 2013 to 78% in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their downward trend, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize. However, arson cases are predicted to potentially increase further, requiring focused attention from law enforcement.
In summary, Hendersonville has shown overall improvement in property crime rates despite population growth. The significant decrease in larceny theft and burglary, coupled with the increase in median income, suggests positive developments in community safety and economic well-being. However, the concerning rise in arson cases and the city's increasing share of state arson incidents highlight an area requiring targeted intervention and prevention strategies.
