Motor vehicle theft showed a significant upward trend, increasing by 166.7% from 36 incidents in 2010 to 96 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.28 to 3.13 during this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 4.54% to 6.15%, peaking at 9.67% in 2018. This substantial rise in motor vehicle thefts suggests a growing concern for residents and law enforcement, potentially indicating a need for targeted prevention strategies.

Arson cases fluctuated considerably, starting at 13 incidents in 2010, peaking at 18 in 2015, and decreasing to 10 in 2022, a 23.1% overall decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.46 to 0.33. The city's proportion of state arson cases varied widely, from a low of 2.44% in 2021 to a high of 26.09% in 2015, settling at 11.24% in 2022. This volatility in arson rates and state proportion suggests complex factors influencing this crime type.

Examining correlations, a notable relationship emerged between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,673 per square mile in 2010 to 1,821 in 2022, total property crimes showed a corresponding rise. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income rose from $61,670 in 2013 to $67,238 in 2021, property crimes decreased from 1,274 to 1,098 during the same period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 80 incidents per year. Larceny theft is projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 900 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase but at a slower rate, potentially reaching 110-120 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with possible fluctuations between 5-15 incidents annually.

In summary, Helena has experienced diverse trends across different property crime categories over the past decade. While burglary rates have decreased and larceny theft has remained stable relative to population growth, motor vehicle theft has emerged as a growing concern. The city's changing demographics and economic factors appear to influence these crime trends, highlighting the complex interplay between urban development and public safety challenges. As Helena continues to grow and evolve, targeted strategies addressing specific property crime types, particularly motor vehicle theft, may be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.