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Property Crime Trends in Havre, Montana: A Decade of Resilience in a Small Urban Center
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Havre, Montana, a small urban center with a population of 7,891 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 1.34%, from 372 to 367 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 1.47%, from 8,009 to 7,891 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries, which peaked at 52 in 2017 before declining to 22 in 2022, marking a 24.14% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.62 in 2010 to 2.79 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 1.56% in 2010, peaking at 2.55% in 2017, and settling at 1.41% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglary remains a concern, its prevalence has decreased relative to both the local population and state figures.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 313 larceny thefts, which increased to a high of 401 in 2013 before declining to 318 in 2022, representing a modest 1.60% increase over the 12-year span. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 39.08 in 2010 to 40.30 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts decreased from 2.72% in 2010 to 2.56% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city has remained relatively stable compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall decrease, from 30 incidents in 2010 to 27 in 2022, a 10% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 3.75 to 3.42 over this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 3.78% in 2010 to 1.73% in 2022, suggesting that the city has made progress in reducing this crime relative to state levels.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated considerably. From no reported cases in 2010, arson peaked at 8 incidents in 2011 and 2012, before decreasing to 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022. The city's percentage of state arsons increased from 0% in 2010 to 1.12% in 2022, indicating that while arson remains relatively rare, it has become a slightly larger proportion of state incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $46,591 in 2013 to $53,805 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 456 to 367. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 84% in 2013 to 79% in 2022. During this period, there was a small increase in the Native American population from 10% to 12%. These changes do not appear to have a strong correlation with property crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see total property crimes decrease to approximately 330-350 incidents annually, assuming current social and economic conditions persist.
In summary, Havre has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary and motor vehicle theft. Larceny theft remains the most prevalent property crime but has shown stability in recent years. The city's share of state property crimes has generally decreased, indicating improved local crime management relative to state trends. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies could help sustain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
