Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Hayti, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hayti, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. This small urban center has experienced significant fluctuations in its property crime rates, set against a backdrop of declining population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Hayti decreased by 23.4%, from 175 to 134 incidents. During the same period, the city's population dropped by 18.7%, from 3,141 to 2,553 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 36 burglaries, which peaked at 50 in 2013 before declining to 37 in 2022. Despite the overall decrease in population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually increased from 11.5 in 2010 to 14.5 in 2022, indicating a growing intensity of this crime relative to the population size. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose significantly, from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2022, suggesting that burglary has become a more prominent issue in Hayti compared to the rest of Missouri.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a downward trend over the years. The number of incidents decreased from 133 in 2010 to 84 in 2022, a 36.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate of larceny-theft per 1,000 residents decreased from 42.3 in 2010 to 32.9 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.11% and 0.17% throughout the period, indicating that the decline in larceny-theft was consistent with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an upward trend, increasing from 6 incidents in 2010 to 13 in 2022, a 116.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 1.9 in 2010 to 5.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also saw a significant increase, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting that this crime has become a growing concern relative to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with notable fluctuations. From 1 incident in 2010, arson cases peaked at 17 in 2018 before decreasing to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.3 in 2010 to 0.8 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures rose dramatically from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city compared to the rest of the state.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,368 per square mile in 2010 to 1,111 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime. This suggests that the reduction in population density may have contributed to fewer opportunities for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, albeit at a slower pace. Motor vehicle theft may plateau or show a slight increase. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but could experience occasional spikes due to their sporadic nature.
In summary, Hayti has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While overall property crime has decreased, certain categories like motor vehicle theft and arson have become more prominent issues relative to state averages. The city's declining population has influenced crime rates, with some crimes becoming more concentrated per capita. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies that address the specific challenges faced by this small urban community.
