Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more variability. From 6 cases in 2010, it peaked at 15 in 2014 before decreasing to 2 in 2022, representing a 66.7% overall reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.85 in 2010 to 0.28 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2014 before falling to 0.01% in 2022. This volatility might be attributed to periodic organized crime activities or changes in local law enforcement strategies.

Arson cases in the city have been infrequent, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2012, with occasional single incidents in other years. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.29 (in 2012). The city's contribution to state arson cases remained minimal, peaking at 0.2% in 2012. The low and sporadic nature of arson cases suggests it is not a persistent problem in the community.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $34,839 in 2013 to $39,328 in 2022, property crime rates decreased significantly. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,911 per square mile in 2013 to 2,025 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, indicating that increased urbanization in this case may have led to improved security measures or community vigilance.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decline over the next five years (until 2029). The total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 30-35 annually, with burglaries potentially dropping to 3-4 cases, larceny-theft to 25-30 cases, and motor vehicle theft to 1-2 cases per year. Arson is expected to remain at or near zero incidents annually.

In summary, Eldon has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with consistently low arson rates, paint a picture of a community that has become increasingly safer. These positive trends, correlated with rising median incomes and population density, suggest that continued economic growth and urban development could further enhance public safety in the coming years.