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Property Crime Trends in Hackleburg, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hackleburg, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 35 incidents in 2010 to 8 in 2022, representing a 77.1% reduction. During this same period, the population declined slightly from 2,256 in 2010 to 2,020 in 2022, a 10.5% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which increased to 10 in 2013, before dropping to just 2 in 2022. This represents a 33.3% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.33 in 2010 to 5.06 in 2013, then decreased to 0.99 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.09% in 2021 before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary remains a concern, its impact relative to the state has diminished in recent years.
Larceny-theft trends show a general decline over the studied period. From 27 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 6 in 2022, a 77.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.97 in 2010 to 2.97 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a marked improvement. From 5 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2022, a 100% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.22 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, suggesting a complete elimination of this crime type in the most recent year reported.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2011, representing 0.18% of state arsons that year. For most other years, including 2022, no arson cases were reported, indicating this is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 147 per square mile in 2010 to 132 in 2022, the overall property crime rate also declined. Additionally, there seems to be a weak inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $24,003 in 2013 to $31,144 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, though this relationship is not consistently strong throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll present as five years from now), we can anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see total property crimes potentially dropping to around 5-6 incidents per year by 2029, with burglary and larceny-theft remaining the primary concerns, while motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain at very low levels or zero.
In summary, Hackleburg has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime from 2010 to 2022, outpacing its population decline. The most notable improvements have been in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. While burglary rates have fluctuated, they too show a downward trend. These positive changes, coupled with increasing median income, suggest a improving quality of life for residents from a crime perspective. However, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
