Motor vehicle theft showed a similar downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 37 in 2011 to 10 in 2022, a 73% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.9 to 0.9 over the same period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 0.78% in 2012 before declining to 0.15% in 2022. This significant decrease in motor vehicle thefts relative to the state average could indicate more effective local law enforcement strategies or improved vehicle security measures.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only three years of reported incidents. In 2011, there were 4 cases of arson, representing 0.72% of state arson incidents. No data was available for most intervening years until 2022, which reported 2 cases, accounting for 0.38% of state arsons. Given the limited data, it's challenging to draw definitive conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a decline in population density, which fell from 752 people per square mile in 2011 to 671 in 2022. Concurrently, the median income increased from $23,601 in 2013 to $29,445 in 2022, suggesting a potential link between improving economic conditions and reduced property crime rates. The racial composition remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the Black population from 88% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, and a small increase in the White population from 8% to 12% over the same period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we can estimate that total property crimes could potentially decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, reaching approximately 105-110 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.

In summary, Tuskegee has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing both its population decline and state averages in several categories. This improvement, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic well-being. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its long-term prosperity and quality of life.