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Property Crime Trends in Graymoor-Devondale, Kentucky: A Decade of Shifting Dynamics
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Graymoor-Devondale, a city in Kentucky, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, total property crimes increased by 13.58%, rising from 81 to 92 incidents, while the city's population grew by 1.43%, from 3,084 to 3,128 residents. This analysis examines the specific trends in various property crime categories and their relationships to demographic changes in the city.
Burglary rates in Graymoor-Devondale have shown a significant increase over time. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which decreased to 8 in 2013 but then rose again to 24 in 2021, representing a 4.35% increase from 2010 to 2021. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 7.46 in 2010 to 7.67 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also grew substantially, from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2021, indicating that burglaries in the area have become a more prominent part of the state's total burglary incidents.
Larceny theft trends have been relatively stable with a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 55 larceny thefts, which dropped to 50 in 2021, representing a 9.09% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 17.83 in 2010 to 15.98 in 2021. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.09% to 0.12% during this period, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they became a larger portion of the state's total larceny thefts.
Motor vehicle theft in Graymoor-Devondale has shown a significant upward trend. In 2010, there were 3 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 18 in 2021, representing a 500% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.97 in 2010 to 5.75 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased dramatically from 0.07% to 0.21%, indicating that the area has become a hotspot for this type of crime relative to the rest of the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2019, accounting for 0.62% of state arsons that year.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes, particularly motor vehicle thefts, coincides with a rise in population density from 4,182 per square mile in 2010 to 4,242 in 2021. Additionally, the median income increased from $64,895 in 2013 to $82,623 in 2021, which may have made the area a more attractive target for property crimes.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the white population from 82% in 2013 to 85% in 2021, and small increases in Hispanic and multi-racial populations. These changes do not appear to have a strong correlation with property crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can expect the following: Burglaries may continue to increase, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents per year. Larceny thefts are likely to remain stable or show a slight decrease, potentially averaging around 45-50 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to continue their upward trend, possibly reaching 25-30 incidents per year. Overall property crimes may increase to approximately 110-120 incidents annually.
In summary, Graymoor-Devondale has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, over the past decade. These trends correlate with increases in population density and median income. The city's share of state property crimes has also grown, indicating that it has become a more significant contributor to Kentucky's overall property crime statistics. As the community continues to grow and evolve, local law enforcement and policymakers may need to adapt their strategies to address these changing crime patterns and ensure the safety and security of residents in Graymoor-Devondale.
