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Property Crime Trends in Grafton, Illinois: A Decade of Decline in a Riverside Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Grafton, Illinois, a small riverside community, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 60%, from 25 to 10 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 9.5%, from 1,518 to 1,374 residents, indicating a more significant drop in crime rates relative to population changes.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which decreased to zero in 2011 but then fluctuated in subsequent years. The burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.61 in 2010 to 1.46 in 2019, representing a 68.3% decrease. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2017 and 2018, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, they did so at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 17 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 12 by 2019, a 29.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 11.20 in 2010 to 8.21 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable at 0.01% throughout most of the period, indicating that the local trend generally aligned with state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been infrequent, with only one incident reported in most years when data was available. The rate per 1,000 people remained low, ranging from 0 to 0.68. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts was consistently low at 0.01% or less, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant issue in the community relative to state figures.
Arson cases were extremely rare in the city, with only one incident reported in 2013. This single case represented 0.08% of state arsons that year, an unusually high percentage given the city's size. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0.64 in 2013, dropping to zero in subsequent years. The scarcity of arson cases makes it difficult to identify meaningful trends or correlations.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density decreased from 408 per square mile in 2010 to 307 in 2022, property crime rates generally declined. This suggests a potential correlation between lower population density and reduced property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 77% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that higher rates of homeownership contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on historical data and current trends, it's projected that the city may experience approximately 8-10 property crimes annually by 2029, representing a potential further decrease of 20-30% from 2020 levels. However, this prediction assumes that current demographic and economic trends continue without significant disruptions.
In summary, Grafton has seen a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population decrease. The most significant reductions were observed in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson remain rare occurrences. The correlation between increasing homeownership rates and decreasing crime rates suggests that community stability may play a role in crime reduction. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will likely depend on ongoing community engagement and effective law enforcement strategies.
