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Violent Crime Trends in Mount Prospect: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Mount Prospect, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 8.57%, from 35 to 38 incidents, while the population grew by 4.75%, from 59,271 to 62,086 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The only years with recorded murders were 2010 and 2013, each with one case, and 2022, again with one case. This translates to a murder rate of 0.016 per 1,000 people in 2022, compared to 0.017 in 2010. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city has fluctuated, from 0.17% in 2010 and 2013 to 0.13% in 2022. These figures suggest that murder remains an infrequent occurrence in the community, with no discernible trend over time.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. From 5 cases in 2010, the number increased to 11 in 2022, representing a 120% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.084 in 2010 to 0.177 in 2022. Moreover, the city's contribution to state rape cases increased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.31% in 2022. This trend indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community, outpacing population growth.
Robbery cases have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number rose to a peak of 12 in 2011 and 2015, before declining to 6 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 people changed from 0.067 in 2010 to 0.097 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies increased from 0.02% to 0.06% during this period, indicating a slight worsening relative to state trends despite the overall decrease in incidents.
Aggravated assault cases have seen a notable decrease. From 25 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 20 in 2022, a 20% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.422 in 2010 to 0.322 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases increased from 0.10% to 0.16%, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they did not decrease as rapidly as the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 5,529 per square mile in 2010 to 5,792 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but ultimately increased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 68% in 2013 to 64% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 15% to 17%, and the Asian population from 12% to 13%. This demographic shift coincided with some changes in crime patterns, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, violent crime in Mount Prospect may increase by approximately 10-15% from 2022 levels, assuming current trends continue. This would result in an estimated 42-44 violent crimes annually.
In summary, Mount Prospect has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murders remain rare and aggravated assaults have decreased, rape incidents have shown a significant increase, and robberies have fluctuated. The overall violent crime rate has slightly increased, outpacing population growth. These trends, combined with changing demographics and increasing population density, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly focusing on sexual violence prevention and community policing efforts to maintain the low murder rate and continue the downward trend in aggravated assaults.
