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Property Crime Trends in Gordo, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gordo, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small municipality decreased significantly by 62.5%, from 16 to 6 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth, with the number of residents increasing by 1.7% from 3,605 in 2010 to 3,548 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown notable fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 3 reported burglaries, which spiked to 11 in 2011, before decreasing to 2 in both 2021 and 2022. When considering the population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.83 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents doubled from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating that while local rates decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a marked decline over the observed period. The number of incidents dropped from 13 in 2010 to just 3 in 2022, representing a 76.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.61 in 2010 to 0.85 in 2022. Despite this significant local reduction, the city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.02% to 0.01%, suggesting that the decline in this type of crime was part of a broader state-wide trend.
Motor vehicle theft trends in the city present an interesting pattern. There were no reported incidents in 2010, but 4 cases were recorded in 2011. By 2022, this number had decreased to 1 incident. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2022 was 0.28. Notably, despite the low absolute numbers, the city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft incidents increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime may have decreased more slowly in Gordo compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with no reported incidents in the years for which data is available (2011, 2021, and 2022). This suggests that arson is not a significant concern in the area, with the city consistently contributing 0% to state-wide arson incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $39,506 in 2013 to $42,852 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. Similarly, the rise in home ownership rates from 70% in 2013 to 83% in 2022 coincided with the decline in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between increased property ownership and reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data, it's projected that by 2029, Gordo could see total property crime incidents reduced to around 3-4 per year, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common type of property crime.
In summary, Gordo has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. This positive trend, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing home ownership rates, paints a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents. The projected continuation of these trends suggests that Gordo is well-positioned to maintain and potentially further improve its property crime statistics in the coming years.
