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Property Crime Trends in Cottonwood, Alabama: A Small Town's Decreasing Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cottonwood in Alabama presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small community fluctuated, starting at 27 in 2010, dropping to 10 in 2018, and then rising to 20 in 2022. This represents a 25.93% decrease over the 12-year period. During the same timeframe, the population declined from 5,638 in 2010 to 5,338 in 2022, a 5.32% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which decreased to 4 in 2022, a 42.86% reduction. When adjusting for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.24 in 2010 to 0.75 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting a potentially slower decline compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city have also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. From 19 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 15 in 2022, a 21.05% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 3.37 in 2010 to 2.81 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the city's trend aligns closely with the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the community has remained low and relatively stable. There was 1 incident reported in both 2010 and 2022, with some years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents remained nearly constant at 0.18 in 2010 and 0.19 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community relative to other areas in the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with most years showing no available data. However, in 2022, there was 1 reported case of arson, representing 0.19% of the state's total. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.19 per 1,000 residents. Given the lack of historical data, it's difficult to establish a trend or make meaningful comparisons over time for arson cases in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 975 per square mile in 2010 to 923 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a possible correlation between population density and property crime incidence in the community.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on the recent uptick from 2018 to 2022, the total number of property crimes may reach approximately 22-25 incidents by 2029. However, if the long-term downward trend persists, we could see figures closer to 15-18 incidents.
In summary, Cottonwood has experienced an overall decrease in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with burglary showing the most significant reduction. The community's share of state crime rates has remained relatively stable for most categories, indicating that local trends generally align with broader state patterns. The relationship between declining population density and decreasing crime rates suggests that demographic changes may play a role in shaping the local crime landscape. As the city moves forward, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and potentially improving upon these positive trends.
