Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but variable. There were 3 incidents in 2010, which dropped to 0 in 2015 and 2016, before rising to 4 in 2019. This represents a 33.3% increase from 2010 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 1.10 in 2010 to 1.43 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts tripled from 0.01% to 0.03%, indicating a faster increase compared to state averages.

Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2010, representing 0.1% of state arsons. From 2012 to 2019, no arsons were reported, suggesting effective fire prevention and investigation measures or potential underreporting.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $41,116 in 2018 to $54,861 in 2021, total property crimes decreased from 99 in 2019 to an estimated lower figure in subsequent years. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Gillespie may continue to fluctuate but with a potential overall decrease. The burglary rate is expected to stabilize around 5-6 incidents per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may decrease to approximately 20-25 incidents per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year.

In summary, Gillespie has experienced varying trends in property crime over the past decade, with notable increases in burglary and larceny-theft rates. However, the correlation with rising median income suggests that continued economic improvement could lead to a reduction in property crimes. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should focus on maintaining this positive economic trajectory while implementing targeted strategies to address the specific challenges in burglary and larceny-theft prevention.