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Property Crime Trends in Shawneetown, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Shawneetown in Illinois presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with 12 incidents reported in 2010, peaking at 22 in 2017, and declining to an incomplete data set in 2020. This represents an overall increase of 83.3% from 2010 to 2017, followed by a decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 871 in 2010 to 807.5 in 2020, a slight decrease of 7.3%.
Burglary trends in the city show significant volatility. In 2010, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2015, this number rose to 7, representing 0.02% of the state's burglaries. The rate peaked in 2017 with 9 incidents (0.03% of state total), before declining to 2 in 2020 (0.01% of state total). When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 9.5 per 1,000 in 2017, then decreased to 2.5 per 1,000 in 2020. This fluctuation suggests periods of increased vulnerability followed by improved security measures or law enforcement efforts.
Larceny-theft remained the most common property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 12 incidents, which increased to 10 in 2015 and remained stable at 9 in 2019, before data became unavailable in 2020. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained consistently low at 0.01%. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 13.8 in 2010 to 11.3 in 2019, indicating a marginal improvement relative to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft showed minimal presence in the city. From 2010 to 2014, no incidents were reported. In 2015, there was 1 case (0.01% of state total), peaking at 3 cases in 2017 (0.02% of state total), before returning to 0 in 2019 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 3.2 in 2017 but remained at 0 for most years, suggesting this crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported incident in 2019, representing 0.1% of the state's arson cases. This translates to a rate of 1.3 per 1,000 residents for that year. The rarity of arson cases makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with other factors.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income decreased from $41,924 in 2015 to $25,899 in 2022, property crime incidents showed an overall increasing trend, peaking in 2017 before declining. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 74% in 2015 to 62% in 2022, which coincides with periods of higher property crime rates. This suggests that economic factors and housing stability may influence property crime trends in the city.
Applying predictive models based on historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Shawneetown may stabilize or slightly decrease. Burglary rates are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 3-5 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is likely to continue as the predominant property crime, with an estimated 8-12 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year. Arson is expected to remain an isolated occurrence, if any.
In conclusion, Shawneetown has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with larceny-theft consistently being the most common offense. The correlation between declining median income, decreasing home ownership, and periods of higher crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on community safety. Moving forward, while property crime rates are expected to stabilize, ongoing attention to economic development and community engagement may be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in this small Illinois city.
