Motor vehicle theft in Gatlinburg has shown some fluctuation but an overall increase. In 2010, there were 10 reported cases, which rose to 13 in 2022, a 30% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate increased from 2.0 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.09% to 0.07%. This trend suggests that while overall property crime has decreased, vehicle security remains an area of concern.

Arson cases in Gatlinburg have been sporadic and relatively low. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, which dropped to 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.0 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arson cases fell from 0.66% to 0%. This trend indicates effective fire prevention and investigation efforts in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 487 per square mile in 2010 to 433 in 2022, property crime rates also declined. This suggests that a less crowded environment may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, the increase in median income from $45,196 in 2013 to $41,312 in 2022, despite some fluctuations, coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, indicating that improved economic conditions may play a role in reducing criminal activities.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglaries to potentially decrease further to around 10-15 cases annually. Larceny-theft incidents may stabilize at approximately 80-90 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could remain steady or slightly increase to 15-18 cases annually. Arson cases are likely to remain very low or non-existent.

In summary, Gatlinburg has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with stable or improving economic indicators, paint a picture of a city that has effectively addressed property crime issues. While motor vehicle thefts remain a concern, the overall trend is positive. These improvements in public safety are likely to contribute to Gatlinburg's appeal as both a residential community and a tourist destination in the coming years.