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Property Crime Trends in Garner, North Carolina: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Garner, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside its population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 15.76%, from 977 to 1,131 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 30.49%, from 46,896 to 61,193 residents, indicating a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 152 burglaries, which peaked at 217 in 2017 before dropping significantly to 91 in 2022, representing a 40.13% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.24 in 2010 to 1.49 in 2022, a 54.12% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.28% in 2010 to a high of 0.75% in 2017, before settling at 0.37% in 2022. This overall downward trend in burglaries suggests improved security measures or shifts in criminal activity within the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed an increase over the study period. In 2010, there were 793 larceny thefts, which rose to 979 in 2022, a 23.46% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 16.91 in 2010 to 16.00 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.61% in 2010 to 0.82% in 2022, indicating a faster growth in larceny thefts compared to the state average. This trend suggests that while overall numbers have increased, the risk per capita has remained relatively stable.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a significant upward trend. In 2010, there were 32 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 61 in 2022, a 90.63% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.68 in 2010 to 1.00 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.30% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2022, peaking at 0.65% in 2021. This substantial increase in motor vehicle thefts, both in absolute numbers and relative to population, indicates a growing concern for residents and law enforcement.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. In 2010, there was 1 reported case of arson, which increased to 3 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained low, increasing slightly from 0.02 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, with significant year-to-year variations. While the absolute numbers are small, the relative increase suggests a need for continued vigilance in fire prevention and investigation.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes coincides with a period of rising population density, which grew from 2,566 per square mile in 2010 to 3,349 in 2022. This suggests that as the city became more crowded, opportunities for property crimes may have increased. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and property crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 52% in 2013 to 48% in 2019 before rising again to 52% in 2022, property crime rates fluctuated similarly, suggesting potential socioeconomic factors at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 70 cases annually. Larceny thefts may stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching 1,050 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to continue rising, possibly reaching 90-100 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate between 2-4 cases per year.
In summary, Garner has experienced varied trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny thefts have increased in absolute numbers but remained stable per capita. The most concerning trend is the substantial rise in motor vehicle thefts. These changes occur against a backdrop of rapid population growth and evolving demographics, highlighting the complex interplay between urban development and crime patterns. As the city continues to grow, targeted strategies to address specific property crime types, particularly motor vehicle theft, will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
