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Violent Crime Trends in New Bern: Historic City Faces Changing Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
New Bern, a city in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 13.5%, rising from 141 to 160 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 13.8%, from 31,033 to 35,305 residents, indicating that crime rates have largely kept pace with population growth.
Murder rates in New Bern have shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.032 murders per 1,000 people. This rate peaked in 2021 with 7 murders (0.198 per 1,000), before decreasing to 3 murders (0.085 per 1,000) in 2022. The city's percentage of state murders fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.09% in 2021 before dropping to 0.52% in 2022. This volatility suggests that while murder rates have increased overall, they remain relatively low and subject to significant year-to-year variations.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a general upward trend. In 2010, there were 8 reported rapes (0.258 per 1,000 people), increasing to 11 (0.312 per 1,000) by 2022. The city's share of state rape cases has fluctuated, ranging from 0.3% in 2019 to 0.7% in 2020, settling at 0.58% in 2022. This trend indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community, outpacing population growth.
Robbery rates in New Bern have shown a decreasing trend over time. In 2010, there were 23 robberies (0.741 per 1,000 people), which peaked at 51 (1.609 per 1,000) in 2011. By 2022, this number had decreased to 12 (0.340 per 1,000). The city's percentage of state robberies has also declined from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is a positive development for the city's safety.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 109 cases (3.512 per 1,000 people), which rose to 134 (3.796 per 1,000) by 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.46% and 0.86% over the years. This trend suggests that aggravated assault remains a persistent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,090 per square mile in 2010 to 1,240 in 2022, violent crime incidents also showed an overall increase. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the city's racial demographics and crime rates, with slight fluctuations in the white and black populations coinciding with changes in crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, New Bern may see a slight increase in overall violent crime rates, potentially reaching around 175-180 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults are likely to continue their upward trend, while robbery rates may stabilize or continue to decrease. Murder rates are expected to remain volatile but generally low.
In summary, New Bern has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault and rape have increased. The city's crime trends largely mirror its population growth, suggesting that as New Bern continues to expand, addressing these crime patterns will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
