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Property Crime Trends in Franklin, Kentucky: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Franklin, Kentucky, nestled in the heart of the Bluegrass State, offers an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a notable decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 329 in 2010 to 274 in 2022, representing a 16.7% reduction. This decline occurred against the backdrop of significant population growth, with the number of residents increasing from 16,098 in 2010 to 18,539 in 2022, a 15.2% rise.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 72 reported burglaries, which decreased to 38 by 2022, a 47.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.47 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.05 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.77% in 2022, suggesting a potentially more significant decrease in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 240 reported cases, which decreased to 218 in 2022, a 9.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.91 in 2010 to 11.76 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.41% to 0.85% over this period, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny-theft was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of reported thefts remained relatively stable, with 17 cases in 2010 and 18 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population, the rate decreased slightly from 1.06 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.97 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.38% to 0.43% over this period, suggesting a relatively stable trend compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with years of no reported incidents interspersed with occasional cases. In 2010, there was 1 reported arson, and in 2022, there were 2 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, increasing slightly from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, rising from 0.24% in 2010 to 1.45% in 2022, indicating a potential increase in arson incidents relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $44,203 in 2013 to $50,845 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 293 to 274 over the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 2 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may continue to decline to approximately 10 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to remain relatively stable, hovering around 1 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Franklin has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a city moving towards greater safety and economic stability. However, the increasing share of state crime percentages in some categories indicates that while progress has been made, there is still room for improvement relative to state-wide trends.
