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Property Crime Trends in Irvington, Kentucky: A Study of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Irvington, Kentucky, a small community with a population of 1,546 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, reaching a peak of 16 incidents in 2017 and dropping to just 4 in 2022. This represents a 75% decrease in property crimes from the peak year. During the same period, the population decreased by 15.9%, from 1,839 in 2010 to 1,546 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. The highest number of burglaries occurred in 2016 with 6 incidents, while several years recorded zero burglaries. When examining burglaries per 1,000 people, the rate peaked at 3.6 per 1,000 in 2016 and fell to 1.29 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures has generally been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.04% in 2016 and 2017. This suggests that while burglary has been a concern at times, it represents a very small fraction of the state's total.
Larceny theft in the city has shown similar variability. The highest number of larceny thefts was recorded in 2017 with 9 incidents, while 2022 saw no reported cases. The rate per 1,000 people reached its maximum of 4.85 in 2017 and dropped to zero in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures has been consistently low, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total. This indicates that larceny theft, while present, has not been a major issue relative to state-wide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft has been a persistent concern, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 7 incidents per year. The highest number was recorded in 2019 with 7 thefts, translating to a rate of 4.09 per 1,000 people. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures has been disproportionately high at times, reaching 0.09% in 2019 and 0.05% in 2022, despite the city's small population. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has been a more significant issue for the city relative to its size.
Arson has not been a significant problem in the city, with no reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of arson incidents is a positive aspect of the city's property crime profile.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. For instance, as median income increased from $46,268 in 2013 to $52,134 in 2019, property crime incidents generally decreased. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by fluctuations in crime rates during periods of relative income stability.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that property crime rates in Irvington may continue to fluctuate but remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). The model suggests that annual property crime incidents could range between 3 to 8 cases per year, with motor vehicle theft potentially remaining the most prevalent type of property crime.
In summary, Irvington has experienced varying property crime rates over the past decade, with notable improvements in recent years. The most significant challenges have been in motor vehicle theft, which has at times represented a disproportionate share of state-wide incidents given the city's size. Burglary and larceny theft have shown overall declining trends, while arson has been non-existent. These trends, coupled with the inverse relationship observed between income levels and crime rates, suggest that Irvington has made progress in managing property crime issues, although continued vigilance, particularly regarding motor vehicle theft, may be necessary to maintain and improve upon these trends in the coming years.
