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Property Crime Trends in Fort Gibson, Oklahoma: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fort Gibson, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 77 incidents in 2010 to 48 in 2022, representing a 37.66% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the number of residents falling from 5,517 in 2010 to 4,395 in 2022, a 20.34% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 22 burglaries, which decreased to 8 in 2022, marking a 63.64% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.99 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.16% in 2017 before declining to 0.05% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the city's contribution to state burglary figures has remained relatively small but variable.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a declining trend, from 50 cases in 2010 to 36 in 2022, a 28% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 9.06 in 2010 to 8.19 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.07% in both 2010 and 2022. This indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased in absolute numbers, its prevalence relative to the population has not changed as dramatically as other crime categories.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years. From 5 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 1 in 2021, but then rose to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.91 in 2010 to 0.91 in 2022, showing no net change despite the population decrease. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has varied, from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a slight decrease in the city's contribution to state figures.
Arson cases have been sporadic in the city. There were 2 cases reported in 2010 and 2017, 1 case in 2021, and no cases in several other years. The rate per 1,000 residents for years with reported cases ranged from 0.36 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2021. The city's contribution to state arson figures has been variable, peaking at 0.41% in 2017 but often remaining at 0%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 413 per square mile in 2010 to 329 in 2022, overall property crime rates also tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Native American residents and property crime rates, as both increased slightly over the observed period.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to around 40 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 5-6 cases per year. Larceny-theft may stabilize around 30-32 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at 3-4 cases per year, while arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Fort Gibson has demonstrated a general trend of decreasing property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. This suggests an overall improvement in public safety, particularly in areas like burglary and larceny-theft. However, the city's contribution to state crime figures remains small but variable, indicating that local trends may not always align with broader state patterns. The projected continuation of these trends suggests a positive outlook for the city's safety in the coming years.
