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Property Crime Trends in Forsyth, Missouri: A Study in Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Forsyth, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 47.67%, from 86 to 45 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 25.60%, from 4,984 to 6,260 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 11 burglaries, which decreased to just 2 in 2022, representing an 81.82% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.21 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.32 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This significant drop in burglaries suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts may have been effective.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a downward trend. In 2010, there were 73 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 39 in 2022, a 46.58% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 14.65 in 2010 to 6.23 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022. This indicates that while the city has made progress in reducing larceny-theft, the improvement is roughly in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft rates have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 2 incidents, which doubled to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.40 in 2010 to 0.64 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained stable at 0.02% in both 2010 and 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has increased, it remains a relatively minor issue compared to other property crimes in the city.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2011 and 2016, representing 0.11% and 0.12% of state arson cases respectively. In most years, including 2022, no arson cases were reported. This indicates that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,480 per square mile in 2010 to 1,859 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income increased from $32,116 in 2013 to $40,508 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the overall downward trend in property crimes will continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to stabilize at lower levels, while motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase if current trends persist.
In conclusion, Forsyth has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic development. However, ongoing attention to motor vehicle theft and maintaining the low incidence of arson will be crucial for sustaining these positive trends in the coming years.
