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Violent Crime Trends in Carthage, Missouri: A Decade of Demographic Shifts and Rising Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carthage, Missouri, a city with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1842, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Carthage fluctuated, starting at 24 in 2010 and ending at 41 in 2022, representing a 70.8% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 17,916 to 19,195, a 7.1% increase, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
The murder rate in Carthage has remained relatively low and stable over the years. Between 2010 and 2022, the city experienced only five years with recorded murders, never exceeding two incidents per year. The murder rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.11, with the highest rate occurring in 2016. The percentage of state murders attributable to Carthage fluctuated between 0% and 0.45%, with the peak also in 2016. These figures suggest that while murder is not a persistent problem, occasional incidents do occur, impacting the city's overall crime statistics.
Rape cases in Carthage have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 4 reported rapes, which increased to 15 by 2022, a 275% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.22 in 2010 to 0.78 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases also increased significantly, from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.71% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests a need for enhanced prevention and support services in the community.
Robbery incidents in the city have fluctuated without a clear trend. The number of robberies ranged from a low of 2 in 2017, 2021, and 2022 to a high of 8 in 2014. The robbery rate per 1,000 people varied between 0.10 and 0.45. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated between 0.03% and 0.16%, with the highest percentage in 2014. These figures indicate that while robbery is not a major concern, it remains a persistent issue requiring continued attention.
Aggravated assault cases have shown considerable variation over the years. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 13 in 2014 to a high of 49 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.73 and 2.80. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults varied from 0.09% to 0.28%, peaking in 2017. This volatility suggests that factors influencing aggravated assaults may be complex and require targeted interventions.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in the city's demographic composition. As the white population percentage decreased from 71% in 2013 to 61% in 2022, and the Hispanic population grew from 23% to 29%, violent crime rates showed an overall upward trend. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the overall upward trend in violent crimes. Based on historical data and current trajectories, the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 55-60 incidents per year by 2029, with rape and aggravated assault likely to be the most significant contributors to this increase.
In summary, Carthage has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns over the past decade. While murder rates have remained relatively low, the city has seen concerning increases in rape cases and fluctuations in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic changes and population growth, present challenges for law enforcement and community leaders. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address specific crime categories, particularly rape and aggravated assault, will be crucial in ensuring the safety and well-being of Carthage's residents.
