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Property Crime Trends in Festus, Missouri: A Decade of Change and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Festus, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 22.6%, from 243 to 188 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 14.5%, from 16,402 to 18,776 residents during the same period, suggesting an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population size.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 51 burglaries, which decreased to just 6 in 2022, marking an 88.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.11 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.32 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also declined from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating that burglary rates improved more rapidly in Festus than in Missouri overall. This substantial decrease suggests enhanced security measures or improved crime prevention strategies within the community.
Larceny-theft, while fluctuating over the years, has also seen an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 185 incidents, which reduced to 141 in 2022, a 23.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 11.28 in 2010 to 7.51 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.16% to 0.18% over this period, indicating that while improvements were made, they were not as pronounced as the state average. This trend suggests that while progress has been made, larceny-theft remains a persistent challenge for local law enforcement.
Motor vehicle theft, contrary to other property crimes, has shown a concerning upward trend. Incidents increased from 7 in 2010 to 41 in 2022, a substantial 485.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.43 in 2010 to 2.18 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts jumped from 0.05% to 0.17%, indicating that this crime has become a more significant issue in Festus compared to the state average. This trend may warrant targeted interventions and increased vigilance in vehicle security measures.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. The highest reported number was 2 incidents in 2013 and 2017, with several years reporting zero incidents. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but it appears that arson is not a major concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $62,558 in 2013 to $69,955 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 262 to 188. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the slight decrease in the percentage of white residents (from 94% in 2013 to 89% in 2022) and the increase in motor vehicle thefts, though this relationship would require further investigation to determine causality.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), overall property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 170-180 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain a concern and could potentially increase to 50-55 incidents per year if current trends persist without intervention.
In summary, Festus has made significant strides in reducing burglary and larceny-theft rates over the past decade, demonstrating effective crime prevention strategies. However, the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a new challenge that may require targeted efforts. The correlation between rising incomes and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging issues will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
