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Property Crime Trends in El Dorado Springs, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation and Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
El Dorado Springs, Missouri, a small city with a population of 4,445 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased from 184 to 166, representing a 9.8% reduction. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 2.6%, from 4,748 in 2010 to 4,624 in 2021.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variation over time. In 2010, there were 42 burglaries reported, which decreased to 27 in 2021, marking a 35.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate decreased from 8.84 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.84 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's contribution to state burglaries increased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2021, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained relatively stable, with 134 cases in 2010 and 128 in 2021, a minor 4.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 28.22 in 2010 to 27.68 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.12% to 0.17% over this period, suggesting that the local trend did not improve as much as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed an increase, rising from 8 incidents in 2010 to 11 in 2021, a 37.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.68 to 2.38. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low but did increase from 0.06% to 0.06% over the period, indicating that the local trend worsened compared to the state average.
Arson cases have shown a notable increase, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2021, a 100% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.63 to 1.30. More significantly, the city's contribution to state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.29% to 0.88%, suggesting a concerning local trend compared to the state average.
A strong correlation appears to exist between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,540 per square mile in 2010 to 1,500 in 2021, overall property crime rates also showed a downward trend. However, this correlation doesn't hold for all types of property crimes, as evidenced by the increases in motor vehicle theft and arson.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, specific categories like motor vehicle theft and arson may continue to see increases if current trends persist. The city might expect to see total property crimes decrease to around 150 incidents per year by 2029, but with a potential increase in the proportion of motor vehicle thefts and arsons within that total.
In summary, El Dorado Springs has shown mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While overall property crime and burglary rates have decreased, concerning increases in motor vehicle theft and arson have been observed. These trends, coupled with the city's increasing share of state crime in several categories, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing the rising arson incidents and motor vehicle thefts.
