Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Fayetteville, Tennessee: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fayetteville, Tennessee, a city with a rich history, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Fayetteville decreased significantly from 376 to 202, representing a 46.3% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 10,071 to 11,142, an increase of 10.6%.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 59 reported burglaries, which dropped to 25 by 2022, marking a 57.6% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.86 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.24 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decline, Fayetteville's share of state burglaries increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, suggesting that the city's improvement in this area outpaced the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in Fayetteville, also showed a downward trend. The number of larceny thefts decreased from 303 in 2010 to 161 in 2022, a 46.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 30.09 to 14.45 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.26% to 0.21%, indicating that the city's improvement in this category was roughly in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Fayetteville fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 14 reported cases, which rose to 16 in 2022, a 14.3% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 1.39 to 1.44. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.13% to 0.09%, suggesting that this type of crime increased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Arson cases in Fayetteville remained relatively low throughout the period, with a peak of 4 cases in 2016 and no reported cases in 2022. Due to the low numbers, the arson rate per 1,000 people and the city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, making it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $40,178 in 2013 to $50,826 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing overall increases over the study period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are predicted to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Fayetteville has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. These improvements have occurred despite population growth, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. The city's evolving economic landscape, as indicated by rising median incomes, may have contributed to this positive trend. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention. As Fayetteville continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for the city's overall safety and quality of life.
