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Property Crime Trends in Farmville, NC: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Farmville, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 50.29%, from 173 to 86 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight decline of 1.25%, from 6,954 to 6,867 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 48 burglaries reported, which decreased to 17 by 2022, representing a 64.58% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.90 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.48 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries actually decreased slightly from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft has also seen a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 120 incidents reported, which dropped to 65 in 2022, a 45.83% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 17.26 in 2010 to 9.47 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts decreased from 0.09% to 0.05% during this period, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. There were 5 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 4 in 2022, a 20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people changed minimally from 0.72 in 2010 to 0.58 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.05% to 0.03%, suggesting that the local trend is somewhat in line with state patterns.
Arson cases have been sporadic and low in number throughout the period. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, which decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.58 to 0.15. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, starting at 0.39% in 2010 and ending at 0.11% in 2022, indicating that arson remains a rare occurrence in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $43,696 in 2013 to $53,014 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased from 148 to 86. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. As population density fluctuated between 2,170 per square mile in 2010 and 2,143 in 2022, property crime rates generally followed similar patterns of fluctuation.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 65-70 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Farmville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This positive trend occurs against a backdrop of slight population decline and increasing median income. While motor vehicle thefts have remained relatively stable, arson cases have become rare occurrences. These trends suggest an overall improvement in public safety related to property crimes in Farmville, which may be influenced by various factors including economic conditions and community policing efforts.
