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Lumberton's Violent Crime Trends: Population Decline and Shifting Crime Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lumberton, located in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with 438 cases reported in 2010 and 446 in 2022, representing a slight increase of 1.83% over this period. Interestingly, this occurred against a backdrop of significant population decline, with the number of residents dropping from 36,498 in 2010 to 32,234 in 2022, a decrease of 11.68%.
The murder rate in the city has shown considerable volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 5 murders, which increased to a peak of 11 in 2014, before dropping to just 1 in 2021 and then rising again to 8 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.137 in 2010 to 0.248 in 2022, a significant rise of 81.02%. The city's percentage of state murders also fluctuated, reaching a high of 3.54% in 2014 before dropping to 1.39% in 2022. This volatility suggests underlying factors influencing violent crime that may require targeted interventions.
Rape incidents in the city have shown an upward trend in recent years. While data is unavailable for several years between 2013 and 2020, we can compare the 13 reported cases in 2010 to 16 in 2022. This represents a 23.08% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.356 in 2010 to 0.496 in 2022, a 39.33% increase. The city's share of state rape cases decreased slightly from 1.15% in 2010 to 0.84% in 2022, indicating that while rape incidents increased locally, they did not outpace the state's overall increase.
Robbery trends show a marked decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 138 robberies reported, which decreased to 61 in 2022, a significant reduction of 55.80%. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also fell from 3.781 in 2010 to 1.892 in 2022, a 49.96% decrease. Despite this local improvement, the city's percentage of state robberies decreased only slightly from 1.86% in 2010 to 1.20% in 2022, suggesting that robbery rates may have declined statewide as well.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 282 reported cases, which rose to 361 in 2022, a 28.01% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased even more dramatically, from 7.726 in 2010 to 11.199 in 2022, a 44.95% rise. However, the city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased from 2.10% in 2010 to 1.50% in 2022, indicating that the increase in aggravated assaults was not unique to this locality but part of a broader trend across the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,055 per square mile in 2010 to 1,815 in 2022, violent crime rates per capita increased. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between the rise in median rent, which increased from $588 in 2013 to $792 in 2022, and the overall increase in violent crime rates during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the current trends. Aggravated assaults are likely to increase further, potentially reaching around 400 incidents annually. Robberies may continue to decrease, possibly dropping below 50 per year. Murder rates are expected to remain volatile but could average around 6-7 per year. Rape incidents may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 20-25 cases annually.
In summary, Lumberton has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns from 2010 to 2022. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault and rape have worsened. The increase in violent crime rates despite a decreasing population is particularly concerning and may indicate deeper socio-economic issues at play. The correlations with decreasing population density and increasing median rent suggest that demographic and economic factors are closely tied to crime trends in the city.
