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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Burgaw, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 5 incidents in 2016 to 22 in 2022, representing a 340% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 5,865 in 2010 to 5,624 in 2022, a 4.1% decline.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one recorded incident in 2018. This single case represented 0.35% of the state's murders that year, a significant spike for a small town. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.16 in 2018, dropping back to zero in subsequent years. This isolated incident stands out against the backdrop of an otherwise murder-free period, suggesting it was an anomaly rather than indicative of a trend.
Rape cases have shown some variability. The data shows no reported rapes from 2010 to 2012, with no data available for several years thereafter. However, from 2019 to 2022, there were consistent reports of rape incidents. The highest number was recorded in 2019 and 2020 with 5 cases each, representing 0.3% and 0.32% of the state's total rapes respectively. In 2022, there were 3 reported rapes, equating to 0.16% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.83 in 2019 to 0.53 in 2022, indicating a slight downward trend in recent years despite population decrease.
Robbery trends have shown a general decline. The highest number of robberies was recorded in 2012 and 2015 with 4 incidents each, representing 0.05% and 0.07% of the state's total robberies respectively. By 2022, robberies had decreased to zero, down from 1 incident in 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.62 in 2012 and dropped to zero by 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 19 aggravated assaults, representing 0.14% of the state's total. This number decreased to 2 in 2016 but then rose sharply to 19 again in 2022, accounting for 0.08% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.24 in 2010 to 3.38 in 2022, showing a slight upward trend when accounting for population changes.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents increased from 62% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents decreased from 29% to 23% over the same period. This demographic shift coincides with the rise in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, if current trends persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 30-35 incidents annually, with aggravated assaults potentially accounting for 25-30 of these cases.
In summary, Burgaw has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murder rates have remained exceptionally low and robbery has seen a significant decrease, the sharp rise in aggravated assaults is concerning. The fluctuations in rape cases also warrant attention. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest a shifting social dynamic that may be influencing crime patterns in this small North Carolina town.