Motor vehicle theft showed some variability, with 2 incidents in 2010 increasing to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.02% to 0.01%, suggesting an improvement relative to state trends.

Arson cases were rare, with only one incident reported in 2021, representing 0.17% of state arsons that year. This translates to a rate of 0.21 per 1,000 people in 2021. Given the infrequency of arson, it's challenging to establish a meaningful trend.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $44,689 in 2013 to $48,781 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased from 40 to 25. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 86% in 2013 to 82% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, suggesting that property ownership may not be a strong factor in crime rates for this city.

Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, Estill Springs may see a further decrease in overall property crimes to around 20 incidents per year. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 3-4 cases annually. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain stable or slightly decrease to about 15 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to stay at similar levels, with 2-3 cases annually.

In summary, Estill Springs has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries. This positive trend, coupled with increasing median incomes, suggests a strengthening local economy and improved security measures. However, the town's share of state crime in some categories has increased, indicating that while progress has been made, there's still room for improvement relative to state-wide trends. The projected continuation of these positive trends over the next five years bodes well for the safety and security of Estill Springs residents.