Robbery rates have fluctuated over the years, with the highest number of incidents (4) occurring in 2018, representing 0.09% of the state's total robberies that year. This equates to a rate of 0.60 robberies per 1,000 people. However, in many years, including 2022, no robberies were reported, indicating an overall low incidence of this crime type in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 2 in 2014 to a high of 13 in 2017. In 2022, there were 5 aggravated assaults, representing 0.02% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people has varied, with the highest being 2.05 in 2017 and 0.81 in 2022. Despite fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary concern among violent crimes in the area.

There appears to be a weak correlation between violent crime rates and population density. For instance, in 2017, when violent crime peaked at 15 incidents, the population density was 1,253 people per square mile, which is close to the average density over the studied period. Similarly, no strong correlations were observed between violent crime trends and median rent or racial distribution, as the city has maintained a predominantly white population (95-96%) throughout the period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of violent crime rates. Based on the fluctuating but generally low crime numbers over the past decade, it's projected that the city may experience between 4 to 8 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most frequent type of violent crime.

In summary, New Tazewell has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with occasional spikes and dips. Aggravated assault emerges as the most consistent concern, while other forms of violent crime remain infrequent. The town's stable demographic composition and modest population changes suggest that dramatic shifts in crime patterns are unlikely in the near future, barring any significant external factors.