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Property Crime Trends in Emma, Missouri: A Study of Minimal Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Emma, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2015, the city experienced minimal property crime activity, with only two reported incidents of burglary in 2013 and 2014. This represents a 100% increase from zero incidents in 2011 to one incident per year in 2013 and 2014, followed by a return to zero in 2015. During this period, the population decreased from 1,177 in 2011 to 996 in 2015, a decline of about 15.4%.
The city saw a spike in burglary incidents in 2013 and 2014, with one case reported each year. This represents a rate of 1.03 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2013 and 2014, based on the respective populations of 968 in both years. The burglary rate then dropped to zero in 2015. Despite these incidents, the percentage of state burglaries attributed to Emma remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating that these crimes had a negligible impact on statewide statistics.
Throughout the observed period from 2011 to 2015, Emma reported no incidents of larceny theft. This consistent zero-rate contrasts with the fluctuating population, suggesting that factors other than population size may be influencing the absence of reported larceny thefts. Similarly, motor vehicle theft remained at zero incidents from 2011 to 2015. This steady state persisted despite population changes, indicating a potentially low risk for this type of crime in the area during the observed years.
No arson incidents were reported in Emma from 2011 to 2015. This consistent absence of arson cases suggests a community with either effective fire prevention measures or low risk factors for this type of crime.
The limited property crime data makes it challenging to establish strong correlations with demographic factors. However, it's notable that the two burglary incidents in 2013 and 2014 coincided with a period of stable population (968 residents in both years) and increasing median income (from $70,464 in 2013 to $71,571 in 2014). The percent of owner-occupied housing decreased slightly from 79% in 2013 to 75% in 2014, which could potentially be related to the burglary incidents, though the sample size is too small to draw definitive conclusions.
Based on the limited data available, predicting future property crime trends for Emma is challenging. However, if the pattern of low crime rates continues, we might expect to see sporadic, isolated incidents rather than consistent criminal activity. Projecting seven years from 2022 to 2029, the city may continue to experience very low property crime rates, with possibly 0-1 incidents per year across all categories.
The most significant discovery in Emma's property crime analysis is the overall low incidence rate across all categories. The sporadic nature of the reported burglaries in 2013 and 2014, followed by a return to zero incidents, suggests that property crime is not a persistent issue in the community. This trend, combined with the declining population and fluctuating economic indicators, paints a picture of a small city that has maintained a relatively secure environment despite demographic changes. Looking forward, Emma appears poised to continue its trend of minimal property crime, barring any significant shifts in socioeconomic factors or population dynamics.
