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Property Crime Decline in Lake Tapawingo: A Small Missouri City's Success Story
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lake Tapawingo, a small community in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 16 incidents in 2010 to just 1 in 2022, representing a 93.75% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred alongside a population increase from 995 in 2010 to 1,416 in 2022, a growth of 42.31%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a fluctuating but generally declining trend. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which decreased to 0 by 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 2.01 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained consistently low, peaking at 0.02% in 2013 and 2019, but dropping to 0% in most other years. This suggests that burglary has become an increasingly rare occurrence in the community, despite population growth.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also showed a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 14 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 0 by 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 14.07 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained low throughout, typically at 0.01% or less. This substantial reduction in larceny-theft, even as the population grew, indicates a marked improvement in community safety and property protection.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 2 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 1.85 (in 2014). The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%. The low and inconsistent numbers make it difficult to establish a clear trend, but they suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant ongoing concern in the community.
Arson incidents in Lake Tapawingo have been consistently reported as 0 from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases, maintained over a decade despite population growth, indicates an extremely low risk for this type of crime in the community.
A notable correlation exists between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income and home ownership rates. The median income rose from $60,956 in 2013 to $92,307 in 2022, while the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 78% to 92% in the same period. This suggests that as the community became more affluent and stable, property crime rates decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low crime rates observed in recent years. Given the strong downward trend and the correlation with positive economic indicators, it's projected that property crime rates will likely remain very low, potentially fluctuating between 0 and 5 incidents per year, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In conclusion, Lake Tapawingo has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade. The substantial decrease in all categories of property crime, particularly in the context of population growth, suggests effective community policing, improved economic conditions, and a stable residential environment. These trends, if maintained, position the city as an increasingly safe and desirable place to live.
