Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained consistently low. From 2011 to 2022, there were no reported cases of motor vehicle theft. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the fluctuations in other property crime categories and the changes in population. The absence of motor vehicle thefts suggests effective prevention measures or possibly a lack of opportunity for this type of crime in a small, rural community.

Similarly, arson cases have been non-existent in the reported data from 2011 to 2022. The consistent absence of arson cases, like motor vehicle thefts, points to a community that has either effectively prevented such incidents or has not faced significant threats in this area.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in larceny-theft cases from 2013 to 2022 coincides with a period of significant income growth in the city. The median income rose from $27,288 in 2013 to $47,430 in 2022, an increase of about 73.8%. This correlation might suggest that as the community became more affluent, it potentially became a more attractive target for petty theft.

Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the rise in property crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 94% in 2013 to 88% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 4% to 6%, and the Black population rose from 0% to 3%. This diversification of the population coincided with the increase in larceny-theft cases, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a continued modest increase in larceny-theft cases, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents annually. However, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson rates are expected to remain low or non-existent, assuming current conditions persist.

In conclusion, Ellsinore has experienced a nuanced shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While some categories like burglary have fluctuated and returned to zero, larceny-theft has seen a notable increase. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of population decline, income growth, and slight demographic shifts. Moving forward, the city's law enforcement and community leaders may need to focus on strategies to address the rising larceny-theft trend while maintaining the low rates in other property crime categories.