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Property Crime Trends in Ellis, Kansas: A Decade of Growth Outpacing Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ellis, located in Kansas, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes increased from 11 to 17, representing a 54.5% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 2,056 to 2,280, an increase of 10.9%.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which decreased to 1 in 2011. By 2016, this number had risen to 5, but then dropped to 0 in 2020, before increasing again to 4 in 2021. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.97 in 2010 to 1.75 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, rising from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2021. This suggests that while burglaries have become more prevalent in recent years relative to the state, they remain a small fraction of Kansas's total burglaries.
Larceny theft has shown a general upward trend. In 2010, there were 7 reported cases, which increased to 20 in 2020, before decreasing slightly to 12 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 3.40 in 2010 to 5.26 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2021, indicating a growing share of the state's larceny theft incidents.
Motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable, with 2 cases reported in 2010, decreasing to 1 in 2014, and maintaining that level through 2021. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.97 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2021 due to population growth. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts has remained low, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.04% over the years.
Arson incidents have been rare, with only one reported case in 2014, representing 0.49% of the state's arson cases that year. In all other years with available data, there were no reported arson cases.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,240 per square mile in 2010 to 1,375 in 2021, property crimes also generally increased. However, the correlation with median income is less clear, as income fluctuated over the years without a consistent pattern relative to crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a moderate increase in overall property crimes by 2029. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that larceny theft will continue to be the most prevalent property crime, potentially reaching 25-30 cases annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 3-5 cases per year, while motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain low at 1-2 cases annually.
In summary, Ellis has seen an overall increase in property crimes, particularly in larceny theft, while maintaining relatively low levels of more serious property crimes like burglary and motor vehicle theft. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has grown slightly but remains small. These trends, coupled with population growth, suggest a need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain public safety in the coming years.
