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Property Crime Trends in Troy, Kansas: A Small City's Shifting Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Troy, Kansas, a small municipality with a population of 1,700 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates in recent years. Between 2017 and 2019, the total number of property crimes increased from 1 to 4, representing a 300% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 1,630 to 1,444, a 11.4% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show a decrease over time. In 2017, there was one reported burglary, which accounted for 0.01% of the state's total burglaries, translating to a rate of 0.61 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2019, no burglaries were reported, indicating a 100% decrease. This reduction occurred despite the population decline, suggesting an improvement in burglary prevention or reporting practices.
Larceny-theft incidents saw an increase during the observed period. In 2017, no larceny-thefts were reported. However, by 2019, four cases were recorded, representing 0.01% of the state's total larceny-thefts. This increase resulted in a rate of 2.77 larceny-thefts per 1,000 residents in 2019. The rise in larceny-theft cases, despite a decreasing population, may indicate changing economic conditions or shifts in local law enforcement focus.
Motor vehicle theft data for the city shows no reported incidents in both 2017 and 2019. This stability in the absence of motor vehicle thefts, even as the population decreased, suggests effective prevention measures or possibly a lack of targets in this small community.
Similarly, arson cases were not reported in either 2017 or 2019. The consistent absence of arson incidents over this period, regardless of population changes, indicates a low risk for this type of crime in the community.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density decreased from 1,672 people per square mile in 2017 to 1,481 in 2019, there was an increase in overall property crime, primarily driven by larceny-theft. This suggests that lower population density may not necessarily correlate with lower property crime rates in this case.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the observed patterns. If the trend of increasing larceny-theft persists, the city might see a further rise in this category, potentially reaching 6-8 incidents annually by 2029. However, burglary rates are likely to remain low or non-existent if current trends hold. Motor vehicle theft and arson are predicted to remain at or near zero, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Troy has experienced a shift in its property crime landscape, with a notable increase in larceny-theft offset by a decrease in burglary. The absence of motor vehicle theft and arson contributes to a relatively stable overall property crime environment. These trends, when considered alongside population changes, suggest that the city's crime patterns are evolving, possibly influenced by broader socioeconomic factors. As the community moves forward, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining public safety and addressing the specific challenges posed by larceny-theft incidents.
