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Property Crime Trends in Elgin, South Carolina: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Elgin, located in South Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 11.5%, from 87 to 77 incidents. During this same period, the population grew substantially by 38.1%, from 7,997 to 11,043 residents, indicating a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which decreased to 3 in 2022, representing a 57.1% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.88 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2022, a 69.3% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.04% in 2010, peaking at 0.11% in 2012, and returning to 0.04% by 2022. This consistent decrease in burglary rates, even as the population grew, suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts in the city.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 78 larceny thefts, which reduced to 73 in 2022, a 6.4% decrease. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people dropped more significantly from 9.75 in 2010 to 6.61 in 2022, a 32.2% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they didn't keep pace with statewide reductions.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively stable, with 2 incidents in 2010 and 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022, a 64% reduction due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.04% to 0.02% over this period, suggesting that the city maintained better control over this crime type compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only sporadic incidents reported. In 2012, 2016, and 2017, there were 2, 1, and 1 arson cases respectively, with no reported cases in other years. This inconsistent pattern makes it difficult to establish clear trends or relationships with population growth or state percentages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 7,388 per square mile in 2010 to 10,202 in 2022, property crime rates per capita decreased, suggesting that higher density did not lead to increased crime. Additionally, the median income rose from $50,166 in 2013 to $63,392 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crime rates, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions contributed to reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the current trends. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly decreasing further to 1-2 incidents annually. Larceny thefts may stabilize around 70-75 cases per year, while motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain at 1-2 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In summary, Elgin has demonstrated a positive trend in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decrease in per capita crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts, coupled with economic improvements, suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community development. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
