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Violent Crime Trends in Johnston, South Carolina: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Johnston, South Carolina, a small municipality with a population of 4,564 as of 2022, has experienced a remarkable decline in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city saw a substantial 78.3% reduction in violent crime incidents, decreasing from 23 to 5, while simultaneously experiencing a 7.8% population growth. This trend indicates a significant improvement in public safety for the community.
Murder rates in Johnston have remained consistently low throughout the analyzed period. Only one murder was reported in 2013, accounting for 0.83% of the state's total murders that year and resulting in a rate of 0.23 murders per 1,000 people. In all other years, no murders were reported, suggesting a generally safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have shown fluctuation over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2013, representing 0.64% of the state's total and equating to 1.15 rapes per 1,000 people. By 2022, this number had decreased to 1 reported case, or 0.13% of the state's total, resulting in a rate of 0.22 per 1,000 people. This significant decrease is evident in both the number of incidents and the city's contribution to state totals.
Robbery trends in Johnston show a decline over time. In 2010, there were 4 robberies (0.15% of state total), or 0.94 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this decreased to 1 robbery (0.09% of state total), or 0.22 per 1,000 people, representing a 75% decrease in robbery incidents despite population growth.
Aggravated assault has seen the most significant decrease among violent crimes in Johnston. In 2010, there were 18 cases (0.21% of state total), or 4.25 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this dropped to 3 cases (0.04% of state total), or 0.66 per 1,000 people. This 83.3% decrease in aggravated assaults is particularly noteworthy and contributes significantly to the overall reduction in violent crime.
The decrease in violent crime in Johnston appears to correlate with changes in racial demographics. As the Black population percentage decreased from 52% in 2013 to 42% in 2022, and the White population increased from 46% to 46%, violent crime rates also declined. However, it is important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and many other factors could contribute to this trend.
Population density in Johnston increased from 1,599 per square mile in 2010 to 1,723 per square mile in 2022, while violent crime decreased. This suggests that increased density has not led to higher crime rates in this case.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it is forecast that violent crime rates in Johnston are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years (until 2029). If current trends persist, the city might see fewer than 5 violent crimes per year, potentially reaching a point where some years may have no reported violent crimes at all.
In summary, Johnston has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, with substantial decreases across all categories, particularly in aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density have coincided with these positive trends in public safety. If these patterns continue, Johnston is poised to become an even safer community in the coming years, potentially serving as a model for small-town crime reduction strategies.
