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Property Crime Trends in Edmundson, Missouri: A Tale of Contrasting Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Edmundson, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 36 in 2010 to 42 in 2022, representing a 16.67% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 965 in 2010 to 1,040 in 2022, a 7.77% increase, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 12 burglaries, which decreased to 3 by 2022, a 75% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 12.44 in 2010 to 2.88 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary crimes remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.07% over the years. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing this type of crime.
Larceny theft trends show a more modest change. In 2010, there were 18 larceny thefts, which increased to 22 by 2022, a 22.22% rise. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 18.65 in 2010 to 21.15 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft crimes remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05%. This slight increase in larceny thefts may indicate a need for enhanced community awareness and preventive measures against petty theft.
Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 6 motor vehicle thefts, which rose dramatically to 17 by 2022, a 183.33% increase. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people surged from 6.22 in 2010 to 16.35 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft crimes increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, with a peak of 0.26% in 2021. This significant rise in motor vehicle thefts suggests a pressing need for targeted interventions and increased vigilance in vehicle security.
Arson trends show sporadic occurrences. The city reported no arsons from 2010 to 2016. However, there was one case in 2017 and two cases in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 1.92. The city's contribution to state arson crimes jumped from 0% to 0.33% in 2022, a significant increase that warrants attention despite the low absolute numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and homeownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied housing decreased from 59% in 2013 to 41% in 2022, property crimes generally increased. This suggests that higher rates of rental properties might be associated with increased property crime risks.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes, primarily driven by motor vehicle thefts. The model suggests that by 2029, motor vehicle thefts could potentially reach 25-30 incidents per year if current trends persist. Larceny thefts are expected to remain relatively stable, while burglaries may continue to decrease slightly.
In summary, Edmundson's property crime landscape is characterized by a significant reduction in burglaries, a slight increase in larceny thefts, and a substantial rise in motor vehicle thefts. The inverse correlation between homeownership and property crime rates highlights the potential importance of community stability in crime prevention. The projected increase in motor vehicle thefts presents the most pressing challenge for law enforcement and community leaders in the coming years.
