Motor vehicle theft in the city was relatively low throughout the period. There was one reported case in both 2015 and 2016, with no incidents reported in 2017 and 2019. This translates to a rate of 0.82 per 1,000 residents in 2015 and 2016. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained constant at 0.01% in these years before dropping to 0% in 2017 and 2019.

Arson cases were rare in the city, with only one incident reported in 2016. This single case represented 0.12% of the state's arson incidents for that year, a disproportionately high figure given the city's small population. No other arson cases were reported in the available data.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $23,104 in 2015 to $33,824 in 2022, property crime incidents decreased to zero. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.

Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 55% in 2015 to 62% in 2022, and the black population percentage decreased from 43% to 27% over the same period, property crime rates declined. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts coincided with other socioeconomic changes in the city.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's reasonable to forecast that property crime rates in Lilbourn will likely remain very low or at zero for the next five years, extending to 2029. The consistent decline in all categories of property crime, coupled with the ongoing population decrease and rising median income, suggests that the city may continue to experience minimal property crime incidents.

In summary, Lilbourn has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics from 2015 to 2019. The substantial decreases across all categories of property crime, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, indicate successful crime prevention strategies or significant socioeconomic changes. These trends, when considered alongside the rising median income and shifting demographics, paint a picture of a city that has undergone substantial transformation in recent years. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while addressing the challenges of a declining population will be crucial for its continued development and prosperity.