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Property Crime Trends in Edina, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Security Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Edina, Missouri, a small city with a population of 1,487 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes increased from 2 to 6, representing a 200% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 1,416 to 1,372, a 3.11% decline. This juxtaposition of rising crime rates against a declining population warrants a closer examination of the city's property crime trends.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which remained constant in 2013. However, by 2014, this number doubled to 4, before dropping to 1 in 2015 and 2016, and then spiking to 5 in 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.41 in 2010 to 3.64 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.02% in 2014 before dropping to 0% in 2015 and 2016, then rising again to 0.03% in 2019. This volatility suggests that burglary remains a persistent concern, despite its relatively low occurrence.
Larceny-theft trends show a more erratic pattern. From zero reported cases in 2010, the number rose to 3 in 2013, peaked at 16 in 2015, and then dropped to zero again in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest point in 2015 at 11.71, before falling to zero in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained minimal, never exceeding 0.02% (in 2015). These fluctuations indicate that while larceny-theft can spike occasionally, it is not a consistent problem in the city.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been infrequent. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2013, followed by 2 cases in 2014, 1 in 2015, none in 2016, and 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.48 in 2014. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained at or below 0.01% throughout the period. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city, with only sporadic occurrences.
Arson data for the city shows no reported cases from 2010 to 2019, indicating that this particular crime has not been a significant issue for the community during the observed period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $25,912 in 2013 to $30,436 in 2019, there was a slight overall increase in property crimes. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing rose from 73% in 2013 to 79% in 2019. This suggests that despite improving economic conditions and increased home ownership, property crime rates did not decrease as might be expected.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the city's small size and the volatility of the data. However, based on the observed patterns, it's reasonable to project that property crime rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low. Burglary rates may stabilize around 3-4 cases per year, while larceny-theft could range from 0-10 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain infrequent, with 0-2 cases per year.
In summary, Edina's property crime trends reflect the challenges faced by small cities in maintaining public safety. While overall crime numbers are low, the impact of each incident is magnified in such a small community. The city's ability to maintain relatively stable crime rates despite population decline and economic changes suggests a resilient local approach to crime prevention. However, the occasional spikes in certain crime categories underscore the need for continued vigilance and adaptive strategies to ensure the safety and security of Edina's residents.
